Examples

How can you use a macro economic spreadsheet model and what are its benefits? People often ask me this question. Financial economic models can help governments and businesses to make better informed decisions about the future. During the collection of data, the construction of the model and the analysis with the model and discussing the output, you will better understand the main factors that matter. Your knowledge is improved, because we work closely together. Through skype, emails or face to face in inhouse workshops.

To show you what can be done with a macro economic spreadsheet model I list below 25 examples of what was done with the macro economic model of Curacao called Curalyse. If you have any questions let me know how I can assist you in your project.

Since 1995 the Curalyse macro economic model has been used extensively for policy recommendations to the government of Curacao and private businesses. This includes research, analysis and forcasts for the the annual publication Economic Outlook of the Department of Economic Affairs. From 1996 – 2000, I was responsible for all calculations made with the macro economic model at the Department.

List of examples on what you can do with a macro economic model

  1.  Quantification of the effects of the introduction of the Sales tax in July 1996 as part of the restructuring program of the International Monetary Fund for the Minister of of Economic Affairs and Tourism;
  2. Quantification of the effects of the whole 3-year restructuring program of the IMF including the social welfare policies for the Minister of Economic Affairs and Tourism Mr. Cedric Eisden;
  3. Research note Perspectives of an Investment Impulse in the Curacao economy 1997, offered by the Minister of Economic Affairs and Tourism to the island’s council during the  annual budget deliberations in 1997. This note discusses the effects of cutting the “red tape” of a list of main tourism projects for the Curacao economy;
  4. Research and policy note on the increase of a minimum wage (4 scenarios) for the Minister of Economic Affairs and Tourism, Mr. Cedric Eisden;
  5. Effects of the reduction of the number of government employees (10%, 5%). Several scenarios were make for a Structural Adjustment Program of the International Monetary Fund;
  6. Effects of an export (tourism) and investment impulse;
  7. Quantification of the “Economic Emergency program” for the Department of Economic Affairs in 1997;
  8. Policy and research note “Economy, our priority!”. During the Structural Adjustment Program the Minister of Economic Affairs, Mr. Cendric Eisden, wanted to focus on the real economy, instead of only on the financial and monetary sector. This note called for more emphasis on the real economy next to the the fiscal and monetary policies then made. From then on the Curacao ministers put more emphasis on the economy;
  9. Calculations for the conference Pusha Korsou!. The Minister of Economic Affairs, Mr. Cedric Eisden, wanted to emphasize the need for economic development and let us organize a conference with all the stake holders. The effects of tourism and structural projects were quantified and presented to all heads of department of the island government of Curaçao and their employees. This created a lot of awareness about the economic policy and facilitated the implementation of measures;
  10. Policy note on the effects of building a Mega Cruise Pier for Curacao. The calculation showed what were the effects for the building sector during the building phase of the pier and what the effects would be during the operational phase according to several scenarios of cruise ship calls and occupancy rates of the cruise ships. This policy note streamlined the decision making process and led to a partially financing of the pier through foreign development aid of the Netherlands;
  11. Calculations for the conference with labour unions at the Department of Economic Affairs to discuss the economic situation of Curaçao. A number of scenarios were made and the purchasing power module “Forsa” was explained. The purchasing power module shows the effect of macro economic policy on the net income of several groups in the economy, like employee private sector, public employee, minimum wage earner, people receiving severance payment and the elderly. The model was also translated in the local language of Curacao, Papiamento for this conference, so all discussions were done in the local language;
  12. Policy and research note of the effects of investments regarding the Build Own and Operate (BOO) and Isla Refinery Program (IRUP). These calculations showed what were the effects of huge direct foreign investments to upgrade the refinery. The effects on the building sector were showed. Also the long term effects on the power price (electricity) were investigated;
  13. Policy and research note on effects of 1 percent reduction of interest rates (breakdown to mortgage and other commercial rates) to boost local investments. ;
  14. Preliminary policy and research note on the economic impact of Isla Refinery on the economy of Curaçao. The impact of the refinery on the economy of Curacao in terms of indirect employment, taxes was calculated. I was calculated what would happen if the refinery would leave the country;
  15. Policy and research note on effects of investments in tourism sector for the Minister of Finance Mr. Etienne Ys. The Minister of Finance, and later Prime Minister of the Netherlands Antilles, wanted to know what the effects of a growth of the economy due to investments in tourism would mean for the short term and mid term budgets. Through the calculations made the Ministry of Economic Affairs worked closely with the Ministry of Finance;
  16. The macro model Curalyse was used during the International Monetary Fund negotiations in November 1997, during the implementation and monitoring of the Structural Adjustment Program. I was part of the delegation of the Minister of Finance Mr. Etienne Ys to the IMF in the USA);
  17. Curalyse was and is  used intensively to produce forecasts of the main macroeconomic variables for the annual Economic Outlook of the Department of Economic Affairs;
  18. Policy and research note to calculate how to achieve  full employment and a foreign reserve stock of more then 3 months coverage. A reverse scenario was calculated where we asked ourselves how much the exporting sector (tourism) of Curacao needed to grow for 5 years to achieve both targets. Both a monetary target (stability of the NAfl. guilder) as a real sector target (full employment). This note set the targets for the mid term economic plan. We also researched the case of Aruba during these calculations;
  19. Stepwise quantification of the policy package of the Inter Americal Development Bank-report (World bank) for the Netherlands Antilles. This policy package was focused on growth of the tourism sector next to the fiscal and monetary measures in the Structural Adjustment Package of the IMF. We showed how to make tourism more productive, what the effects were of investing in education;
  20. Curalyse has also been used by institutions outside of the Department of Economic Affairs. The Chamber of Commerce, for instance, used Curalyse to calculate the effects of a reduction of the profit tax;
  21. Curalyse contains an up-to-date dataset that is used to provide other government institutions and other divisions within the Department of Economic Affairs with the newest macro economic figures;
  22. Curalyse has been used intensively to simulate the  effects of proposed financial and economic policies in the years 2000 and 2001 during IMF consultations;
  23. Curalyse was used to simulate the effects of a change in gas prices, namely on private consumption, production and real GDP growth;
  24. The model was used to estimate the economic effects of hotel investments both in the construction and operational phase. This allowed for a rational discussion about the government investments on the one side and the expected revenues for the island on the other;
  25. From 1996-2000 a total of 15 workshops were given where on average 40 participants participated. The current and future state of the economy was discussed with all the participants. During these workshops several modules of the macro model were presented. Amongst others: the financial and fiscal module (which forcasts the current and long term budget figures), the purchasing power module (focasts the effects on the net income), the social module (all relevant social indicators), the pricing, stay over and cruise tourism monitoring modules (which monitor the monthly tourism arrivals and consumer price index) and the tourism module (a micro block of the export sector explaining the developments of the tourism sector).